Speculation on voter turnout

My gut feeling is that he has a chance, but only if the "against us" coalition really sticks together. I think the polls are quite skewed and you're not getting the complete picture for example:

1.) I think a lot of women won't vote for Bush that SAY they are going to vote for Bush. For instance, if a pollster calls a house and the woman answers and her husband is there, but he supports bush, she will say she does too just to avoid a fight.

2.)Pollsters admittedly do not call people that ONLY have cell phones. This is mostly people age 24 and under allegedly, however, I know two people over 30 that only have cells, so that knocks that demographic right out the window. These people were highly motivated by Dean and even though they have an historically low voter turnout rate I think it will be up this year due to a potential draft and their own economic issues. This was covered in a news article yesterday and they tried to say it's statisticallyl insignificant but I can't imagine that it is. I think they're just trying to cover their asses for leaving a whole bunch of people out of the polls.

3.) I believe there is going to be an extremely high turnout of blacks, thank god. Personally I don't know why Puff Daddy doesn't just run for senate and the blacks take over the country. They could you know. And they should.

4.) Muslims overwhelmingly supported Bush in 2000. I would think they would be galvanized against him at this point.